📰 Super Rugby Pacific Finals permutations

By Ben Francis

The new-look Super Rugby Pacific playoffs are almost upon us, with six teams advancing after this weekend’s matches.

The finals format involves 1 v 6, 2 v 5 and 3 v 4, with the three winners and the highest-ranked ‘lucky loser’ advancing to the semifinals.

With the Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies, Hurricanes and Reds already confirmed for the playoffs, it leaves the Moana Pasifika, Blues and Waratahs to fight it out for the remaining two spots. Western Force, Fijian Drua and Highlanders are out of contention.

Regardless there is still plenty on the line with home-field advantage on the line for some teams.

The make up of the top three will be decided this Friday in Dunedin and Canberra, while the remaining three fixtures all play a significant role as to who takes fourth, fifth and sixth on the ladder.

Chiefs (46 points)
Next matches: Highlanders (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 2nd

For Clayton McMillian’s men, the job is simple. Win and secure top spot, otherwise the Brumbies and Crusaders will battle it out for the right to go top.

If the Chiefs pick up a losing bonus point over the Highlanders, they can still finish first, but that would require the Brumbies to beat the Crusaders without a try bonus point.

Crusaders (45 points)
Next matches: Brumbies (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 3rd

The Crusaders will know heading into their away clash to the Brumbies if finishing top is possible, otherwise it will be a battle for second.

Should the Highlanders prevail, the match becomes a hit out for first - with the loser in Canberra guaranteed third.

If that does happen, all the Crusaders need to do is win, while a bonus point win would be the icing on the cake.

Brumbies (43 points)
Next matches: Crusaders (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 3rd

The Brumbies have already secured a home qualifying final, as they can’t finish any lower than third, but they will still be hoping the Highlanders can cause an upset against the Chiefs.

The Brumbies head into their final regular season clash with the Crusaders knowing a top-two finish - and potentially first place - is still within reach.

If the Chiefs defeat the Highlanders in Dunedin, the Canberra side’s clash with the Crusaders becomes a sudden-death battle for second place and the valuable reward of a home semifinal.

But if the Chiefs stumble without collecting a losing bonus point, the Brumbies’ path to the top of the table opens up. In that scenario, a win over the Crusaders would be enough to secure first place and home advantage throughout the finals, while the loser would drop to third.

Should the Chiefs lose but pick up a losing bonus point, the Brumbies would then need a bonus-point win over the Crusaders to clinch top spot.

A regular win would leave both the Brumbies and Chiefs equal on wins and competition points, but the Chiefs would edge ahead on points differential.

Hurricanes (34 points)
Next matches: Moana Pasifika (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 5th

A simple scenario for the Hurricanes as victory over Moana Pasifika in any form will likely be enough to consolidate fourth spot.

There is a small chance the Hurricanes could still get overtaken by the Reds if they win, but that would require the Queensland-based side to beat the Fijian Drua by a margin big enough that would make theirs superior.

If the Hurricanes lose to Moana Pasifika and the Reds defeat the Drua, they will drop to fifth.

Reds (33 points)
Next matches: Drua (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
Worst possible finish: 6th

The Reds can finish fourth with a bonus-point win over the Fijian Drua and a Hurricanes loss.

If the Reds get a bonus point win, and the Hurricanes win without the bonus, both will finish on 38 points – but with the same number of wins the tiebreak will be points difference – that currently favours the Kiwi team.

The Reds could finish sixth, although there is a better chance Wales win the 2027 Rugby World Cup, as it would require them to lose and Moana Pasifika to overturn a points differential of at least 95 points.

The Blues could also finish on the same amount of points as the Reds, but as the first tiebreakers is most wins.

Playing the last game of the regular season, the Reds will know exactly what is required.

Moana Pasifika (28 points)
Next matches: Hurricanes (A)
Best possible finish: 5th
Worst possible finish: 8th

Moana Pasifika’s path to a maiden Super Rugby Pacific finals appearance is clear: beat the Hurricanes, and ideally do it with a bonus point because of their awful points differential.

Currently clinging to sixth, Moana Pasifika are one point behind the Reds and could climb to fifth, although that is unlikely.

If Moana Pasifika defeat the Hurricanes with five competition points, they will book their place in the finals and shut the door on both the Blues and Waratahs.

If the Waratahs beat the Blues or the Blues win without a bonus point, Moana Pasifika will only need a win. If the Blues can achieve a bonus point win, then Moana will have to do the same.

Even if the Blues beat the Waratahs and draw level on competition points, Moana will advance by virtue of having more wins.

Moana Pasifika have the luxury of playing after the Blues host the Waratahs, meaning they will know what is needed before their clash with the Hurricanes.

Blues (28 points)
Next matches: Waratahs (H)
Best possible finish: 6th
Worst possible finish: 8th

The defending Super Rugby Pacific champions could miss out on the playoffs, and they will need a couple of things to go their way.

They must beat the Waratahs, ideally with a bonus point, while hoping that the Hurricanes defeat Moana Pasifika in Wellington.
The Blues could sneak in with a bonus-point win, and Moana Pasifika fail to claim the extra point in their win.

If the Blues and Moana Pasifika both claim bonus point wins, Vern Cotter’s men will be out based on the number wins, despite having a better points differential.

The Blues have history on their side against the Waratahs having won their past 10 encounters, while the Blues have won their past eight encounters at Eden Park dating back to 2009.

Waratahs (26 points)
Next matches: Blues (A)
Best possible finish: 6th
Worst possible finish: 8th

History is against the Waratahs, but they will need to make it by beating the Blues if they are to have any chance of finishing inside the top six.

Should the Waratahs win, they will then need the Hurricanes to topple Moana Pasifika to sneak in. Lose and it’s game over.

Out of contention: Western Force, Fijian Drua, Highlanders
With the Force on the bye, both the Highlanders and the Drua could climb off the bottom of the table if both manage wins over the Chiefs and Reds respectively - which would hand the Force the wooden spoon.

Super Rugby Pacific round 16 fixtures
Friday, May 30: Highlanders v Chiefs, Dunedin. Kickoff 7.05pm
Friday, May 30: Brumbies v Crusaders, Canberra. Kickoff 9.35pm
Saturday, May 31: Blues v Waratahs, Auckland. Kickoff 4.35pm
Saturday, May 31: Hurricanes v Moana Pasifika, Wellington. Kickoff 7.05pm
Saturday, May 31: Reds v Fijian Drua, Brisbane. Kickoff 9.35pm.

Bye: Western Force.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission.