Who has the best chance to make the Rugby World Cup Final?

The Rugby World Cup Semi Finals are set - Argentina, New Zealand, England and South Africa have emerged from the quarter-finals and will take on each other for a spot in the final. But who has the best chance and why? Look no further than the NZ Herald’s definitive semifinal power rankings below.

Antoine Dupont sank to one knee and covered his face with his hand as the disappointment of France’s Rugby World Cup quarter-final loss to South Africa sank in. The French came up just a solitary point short of reaching the World Cup semifinals for the first time since 2011 at their home tournament.

That came after the Flying Fijians’ World Cup ride ended at the hands of England, after English hopes of a second world title were written off six weeks ago following a lacklustre first-ever loss to Fiji at Twickenham. Owen Farrell and his men turned around to make the semifinals in relative comfort.

A day previously and it was Irish hearts that were shattered. Johnny Sexton and the world’s top-ranked team were beaten by a New Zealand side unrecognisable from their opening-match defeat, in one of the greatest matches in World Cup history.

Argentina came from behind twice to beat Wales and reach their third Rugby World Cup semifinal earlier that morning and with those semis now set, the next step is ranking the World Cup title hopes of each nation

1. South Africa

They’re World Cup champions and they just knocked off France at home in a match that took as much nerve as it did skill. The Guardian’s Michael Aylwin put it best: “As with the All Blacks the night before, it was the Springboks who knew the shortest route to victory.” This is in essence why the Springboks come in top for this ranking; they know how to win when it matters. To get past England, they will have to be more accurate on defence and their kicking ought to have more purpose. The Boks are masters of the game plan, Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber will concoct a recipe for an English dismantlement - watch for the bomb squad to feature as heavily in the semifinal as it did in the quarter.

2. New Zealand

Beating Ireland has been an insurmountable task the last 17 times the Irish took the field, until the All Blacks’ halted one of the great modern unbeaten runs in Paris. In doing so, they told the rugby world that they can never be counted out and as World Cup history stands, they are the most successful at emerging victorious when the stakes are at their highest. Working against them in that regard are what can only be described as capitulations in 2019 and 2003, in which they lost semifinals they were favoured to win. Argentina offer a genuine obstacle to the final, but at seventh in the world rankings they sit just outside the “Tier 1″ of Tier 1 nations. Ian Foster’s side have seemingly taken enjoyment from proving doubters wrong, as they did in spades against Ireland in Paris - perhaps these rankings will be added to the pinboard.

3. England

The aforementioned first-ever loss to Fiji at Twickeham had many dismissing any English hopes of them repeating their 2003 triumph. They have righted that wrong and put themselves in a position where they can genuinely win the tournament. Should they beat the Springboks, they will leap into World Cup favouritism, as that in itself will go down in history as an all-time World Cup victory. They are the third-best nation left; to quote Aylwin once more: “Not even the most ardent fan in white would claim their team represented the best of the north.” Much the same as their semifinal opponents, the English have a knack for winning tight games and should not be counted out of making it to the final.

4. Argentina

Again, it would be a bold call to assume anything more than a starter’s chance for Argentina to beat New Zealand in their semifinal. Argentina’s historic victory over the All Blacks in Christchurch seems a lifetime ago and New Zealand gave them a 41-12 licking in the Rugby Championship this year. Argentina will cling to 2022, though, and rightly so. Their only chance of emerging from their encounter with New Zealand as World Cup finalists is if they replicate that performance and hope the All Blacks also repeat their clunky, ill-disciplined outing. Working in their favour that time was the fact New Zealand had just lost to Ireland in back-to-back tests - this time around the All Blacks have just beaten Ireland in one of the greatest 80 minutes in their already-rich history.

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission