Semi-Final guaranteed? How Black Caps could be denied

The Black Caps look all but assured of a fifth straight semifinal spot at the Cricket World Cup with either Pakistan or Afghanistan needing a miracle to deny New Zealand.

New Zealand ended their run of four straight defeats with a five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka this morning. The win all but cements the Black Caps a spot in fourth which would mean a semifinal against hosts India in Wankhede next Wednesday.

A semifinal clash with India would be a rematch of the 2019 tournament when the Black Caps stunned Virat Kohli’s side after they topped the points table. In the other semifinal, Australia and South Africa are set to meet for the third time in the semifinal stage with Australia winning in 1999 and 2007.

What Pakistan must do to reach the Semi-Finals, and deny the Black Caps
The toss will be vital when Pakistan and England square off at Eden Gardens tomorrow night - as Pakistan must bat first to have any chance of making the semifinals. If Jos Buttler wins the toss and thinks it’s a bat-first wicket, which India did when beating South Africa earlier this week, then all hope is lost for Pakistan.

Pakistan need to win by at least 287 runs to have a better Net Run Rate than New Zealand. Pakistan’s largest-ever ODI win in terms of runs is 255 (v Ireland in 2016) and their biggest over England is 165 runs (in 2005)

If bowling first, the task becomes nearly impossible as they’d need to dismiss England for 50 runs and chase the target in two overs or 100 runs in three overs.

What Afghanistan must do to reach the Semi-Finals
The equation for Afghanistan when they face South Africa tonight is bat first and win by at least 438 runs.

They’d need to break the record for the largest ODI victory in terms of runs, currently held by India after their 317-run drubbing over Sri Lanka in January. Even if Afghanistan equaled the highest ODI team total (498 by England v Netherlands in 2022) and bowled South Africa for their lowest ever (69 in 1993) - they’d still fall nine runs short.

Cricket World Cup semifinal schedule - as it stands
Semifinal 1 - 1st (India) vs 4th (New Zealand), Wankhede, Wednesday 9.30pm

Semifinal 2 - 2nd (South Africa) vs 3rd (Australia), Eden Gardens, Thursday, 9.30pm

This article was first published on nzherald.co.nz and is republished here with permission